As I was predicting for the past few weeks, the international company has failed to secure the project.
Reason being, too many crocodiles are in the pond, wide opening their mouth to eat the company alive. They wanted to operate their sites in 9states, and this has trigger the alarm of these states' "chiefs". Their excessive demand have frightened this company, and now they decide to relocate their project to China.
Sad but as usual, this is what happening everyday on this lovely land. Helpless.
So, now we are on our own.
We have build our operation by ourselves, and seek market ourselves as well. Luckily I was planning ahead if this method failed to perform. My preparation wasn't wasted now, although I seriously hope it does.
My Contingency Plan
We have to start small and slow now, this few months, will be our testing phase.
According to our progression, we will have 2tanks which able to accommodate 5000fishes in total. Third tank will be ready by June. Before any further expansion, we will perform some observation. Understand their growth rate, feedings require, ecology, and do estimation.
By July/August, we will be able to come out with some rough estimation of time and cost. Then we can have actual and precise calculation and expansion plan.
Method of Expansion
This few tanks will be our capital. They will act like our cash flow, and ROI.
With precise growth rate, we can calculate their time, cost and ROI, at the same time, estimate free cash for further expansion.
Through the studies I'd made, I believed that we can grow a 600g to 700g fishes in four/five months, with condition that the fishes coming in is already 3/4inches in size, or about 50-80g in weight.
Average selling price will be RM8 to RM9.50 each pieces of fish. Cost will be control below RM4. Therefore, I can perform at least 1.5times expansion.
If the cost can be lower than 3.50 each, I might get a chance to perform 2times expansion.
Estimate 1
Estimate each 600g fish will consume 1.1kg of food. Average price is 2,20, plus electricity and etc become
RM3. Then there will be RM 5 remain.
If 5000 fishes, there will be sales of 40k, and cost of 15k. Remaining 25k.
If I can setup a tank to accommodate 5000fishes with less than 10k, then I can perform a 2times expansion.
Estimate 2
I have another idea, which to find market which accept 200-250g fishes, average price of rm4 to rm5.
Then, I can buy in a 3inches/50g fishes with 0.40 cost each. Rear for 2months and resell for rm4.
Each fish(200g) is estimate to consume 270g of food, average at rm2/kg, which cost 0.55.
Total cost is about RM1 each, and profit of RM3.
Further more, my 2 tanks is able to accommodate 16k pieces, total profit of 48k.
I can easily expand 2times, which is 10k for tank, and 16k for food, and remain 22k as cash flow.
Which mean I have a profit of 11k each month.
Practising this method, I can harvest 6times a year, and that mean expand 6times.
2 to 4, 4 to 8, 8 to 16, 16 to 32, which my target is only 30tanks for the first year.
Total harvest 240k fishes every 2months, profit of 720k each harvest, monthly 360k profit.
If this method works, then I can easily open an acre of land to cultivate full grown fishes.
There will be 2 sets of full grown fishes:
My 30tanks giving out 240k fishes every 2months, sending into 12 large ponds and rear another 4months.
There will be 24 large ponds, rotating every 2months.
Outcome is, every 2months, I'll have 240k large fishes (700g), price at 9.50 each, total sales 2.2mil,
each fish consume 1.26kg/1.3kg of food, easier 1.5kg, average at rm2, rm 3 each fishes. Margin of 6.50.
Total profit is 1.56mil every 2months.
Annual profit of 9.3mil.
If the second method works, and we are able to work for 4years, we will have about 40mil of profit.
Saturday, April 17, 2010
Friday, April 16, 2010
All Shits Revoke
I can only say this, "WHAT THE FUCK!"
I'm quite sick and fed up with my father's acts. Sometimes I find it very difficult to catch his mind and understand him. Rapid change is what suitable to illustrate his mind. Everyday new set of thinking and new set of decision.
The Fishery Project
It is total mess now. The new tank is not install yet, and the 10,000fishes in ponds are in danger everyday. His stupid partner, threw all 10,000fishes which is less than 2inches in size each, into a damn big pond, without protection from their natural predators. There are snakes, birds who visit them everyday. Few hundreds of fishes are loss every single day. FUCK YOU IDIOT. I really feel like fucking that old fag.
Dude, you are using my money to do good will, fuck you.
I can spend it for better purposes.
Is had been a month since we said we gonna' build the tank. Up till today, we have only finished the foundation preparation. All because, my old man is friggin' stingy. He don't want to hire cheap labour to do the works. Dude, it will only cause him two or three hundreds and all works will be done. Instead, he asked us to do ourselves, which consume fucking lots of time and energy plus unprofessional ways. What The Fuck.
It should have been setup by now! This is the reason why he is still a tiny business owner for the fact he has been doing business for 30years. HE DON'T UNDERSTAND "LEVERAGE".
Leverage your capital, leverage your time, leverage your work-force... LEVERAGE.
His way of business-doing, only money in-flow, no out-flow.
Dad, you should rob a bank instead. Still, you must first buy guns and masks!
Sigh, my plan, was 2years to complete my entire set of cultivation. It seems now, it will take 20years.
If there is no sign for improvement of progressing speed, I'll quit. No point wasting my time for this fella' who love to waste his own time. I have better stuffs to do, I have better chance to do more things.
Paint Project
Ridiculously messy. One day saying wanna' improve quality, next day saying wanna' compete with price, then next day saying wanna' produce colour paste only.
Dad, pyramid doesn't build in a day, can you please focus to make your first brick?
Stick to it, until at least it has shaped? Don't to have to be complete, but at least has a shape, then only you start to think of something else? huh? Please don't always complify all the simple things?
God help me!
I'm quite sick and fed up with my father's acts. Sometimes I find it very difficult to catch his mind and understand him. Rapid change is what suitable to illustrate his mind. Everyday new set of thinking and new set of decision.
The Fishery Project
It is total mess now. The new tank is not install yet, and the 10,000fishes in ponds are in danger everyday. His stupid partner, threw all 10,000fishes which is less than 2inches in size each, into a damn big pond, without protection from their natural predators. There are snakes, birds who visit them everyday. Few hundreds of fishes are loss every single day. FUCK YOU IDIOT. I really feel like fucking that old fag.
Dude, you are using my money to do good will, fuck you.
I can spend it for better purposes.
Is had been a month since we said we gonna' build the tank. Up till today, we have only finished the foundation preparation. All because, my old man is friggin' stingy. He don't want to hire cheap labour to do the works. Dude, it will only cause him two or three hundreds and all works will be done. Instead, he asked us to do ourselves, which consume fucking lots of time and energy plus unprofessional ways. What The Fuck.
It should have been setup by now! This is the reason why he is still a tiny business owner for the fact he has been doing business for 30years. HE DON'T UNDERSTAND "LEVERAGE".
Leverage your capital, leverage your time, leverage your work-force... LEVERAGE.
His way of business-doing, only money in-flow, no out-flow.
Dad, you should rob a bank instead. Still, you must first buy guns and masks!
Sigh, my plan, was 2years to complete my entire set of cultivation. It seems now, it will take 20years.
If there is no sign for improvement of progressing speed, I'll quit. No point wasting my time for this fella' who love to waste his own time. I have better stuffs to do, I have better chance to do more things.
Paint Project
Ridiculously messy. One day saying wanna' improve quality, next day saying wanna' compete with price, then next day saying wanna' produce colour paste only.
Dad, pyramid doesn't build in a day, can you please focus to make your first brick?
Stick to it, until at least it has shaped? Don't to have to be complete, but at least has a shape, then only you start to think of something else? huh? Please don't always complify all the simple things?
God help me!
Wednesday, April 7, 2010
Project 2 - Update
Color Paste
The machine is almost stable, tomorrow will launch another round of testing.
We've checked the paste we produced half month ago and it seems to be just fine, just a little gelly, but it is consider normal for color paste. We found that none of the color has fluoculated or settled at the bottom. It is a very good sign of success.
If this continue to last for 2 to 3months, the color paste is consider succeed.
Paint
Beside of color paste, paint is still our major products. Tomorrow, we will be using our largest mixer to produce 200liters paint. It has been quite sometimes since we produce such amount of paint in a day. In fact, we believe it will takes less than half an hour to finish 100liters. While normally we spent few hours to produce this amount.
Also, through my findings of new formulation for galvanised steel paint, I have discovered a new material. Through several testing, it has shown very excellent result. It is not only suitable for galvanized steel, but in fact almost all surfaces. Plus, by adding this material into other resins, it improve their flexibility, toughness, and adhesion. This might be the answer to all unsolved problem. I named it VAB, but my dad named it CVB. No conclusion yet. It is now consider an additives to our formulation.
Strategy
Since we have solved so many problems that we've been having for the past few years, it is now time to re-take the market share. We will only need few more weeks to confirm all of our newly improved products. Then, we will massively promote our products. But I'm thinking to target large manufacturers. Through their recognition, we then will appoint agents to resell these products. We believe that some of the new invents will be gladly accepted by hardware stores as well.
If so, then the orders will not be less but massive.
The machine is almost stable, tomorrow will launch another round of testing.
We've checked the paste we produced half month ago and it seems to be just fine, just a little gelly, but it is consider normal for color paste. We found that none of the color has fluoculated or settled at the bottom. It is a very good sign of success.
If this continue to last for 2 to 3months, the color paste is consider succeed.
Paint
Beside of color paste, paint is still our major products. Tomorrow, we will be using our largest mixer to produce 200liters paint. It has been quite sometimes since we produce such amount of paint in a day. In fact, we believe it will takes less than half an hour to finish 100liters. While normally we spent few hours to produce this amount.
Also, through my findings of new formulation for galvanised steel paint, I have discovered a new material. Through several testing, it has shown very excellent result. It is not only suitable for galvanized steel, but in fact almost all surfaces. Plus, by adding this material into other resins, it improve their flexibility, toughness, and adhesion. This might be the answer to all unsolved problem. I named it VAB, but my dad named it CVB. No conclusion yet. It is now consider an additives to our formulation.
Strategy
Since we have solved so many problems that we've been having for the past few years, it is now time to re-take the market share. We will only need few more weeks to confirm all of our newly improved products. Then, we will massively promote our products. But I'm thinking to target large manufacturers. Through their recognition, we then will appoint agents to resell these products. We believe that some of the new invents will be gladly accepted by hardware stores as well.
If so, then the orders will not be less but massive.
Routine Update - Fishery
It has been few days without any new progress, all of sudden, things start moving again. It was a little chaos, a lot of new decisions and more complications involved. Due to certain reason, our cultivation biz can only last for 6years, start at April 2010. When is April 2016, we have let go the entire operation, or sell it off. It is so sad, but it has to be done.
Ambush
During the last update, I was saying that we will not do share operation with our neighbour. But, before we actually convey our message to him, he already made some moves. This cunning fox ordered 10,000 fries from breeder without informing us. So now we are forced to provide the capital to rear these fishes. This is a lesson for us, we have to be careful with this man. He is not a good partner, he is using us.
Fortunately, my dad made a smart move. He ask him to spare us 3,000pieces to test our tank. So, at least, we won't lose so much to him. So, we are now sharing 7,000fishes together. Expect 7months to harvest. Probably by Nov or Dec.
New Plan
Due to some incidents, we have decided to only operate this business for maximum 6years. So, we are having a very tight schedule to work things out, and get the best result out of it before we sell it. The reason is a little extraordinary and very personal which I will not disclose here. It has nothing to do with the nature of this industry, it was pure personal matter.
No matter, even if I can make a billionaire with this biz in the long-run, I have to let it go in just 6years. So, I've rearrange the entire plan to follow the pace.
We are now still waiting for the confirmation from the group, at the same time, we are building our testing phase. We've been clearing up the area to install tanks for the past two days. Although we haven't finish the clearing process, but we've done 2/3 of the area. Now we just have to finish it in this few days before the actual foundation getting install before tanks arrival.
If the group confirm with us, we will loan about 200k to 300k, plus some personal investment to start. The entire operation will be 2 to 5acres of land, although I wanted to have 10acres, but it seems quite unreachable due to the available of fingerlings stocks.
Because, if I operate 10acres of cultivation, I'll need 1.5mil fries each month, which I don't think I can get it easily. Therefore, I've downsize my cultivation to 2acres - 5acres. Even if 3acres is more than enough.
Structuring
Each acre will consist of 24ponds, size 20 x 80ft, 1600sqft, or fewer number of ponds but larger in size.
We will buy or prepare the 2months old fishes to put into these ponds. 24ponds will be divided into 4phases.
I'm expecting to my harvest cycle of each pond will be 4months. Dividing 24ponds into 4phases, will enable harvesting 6ponds per month. Resulting every month supplies.
Pond:
Generally, this size can accommodate 11,000 fishes (700gm).
But by using our new found technology, our pond will accommodate 22,000fishes.
2000 prepare for losses, and 20,000 expect to be harvest. Total of 14tons of production.
If each kg is given RM10, then we will have 140,000 sales per month.
Cost exclude building pond is expect to be 40,000. Margin available will be 100,000.
Resulting 600,000 each month per acre. If I can have 3acres will result a 2mil margin monthly.
Tactical Operation:
Due to limited capital, I've planned to have 4ponds at the begin. These 4ponds will act as the first batch of rotating supplies for each month. It can be tripling expand during each harvest, but I will take pre-caution of excess rapid growth. I'll only expand by doubling method (1 + 1).
For the first 4months, expecting each pond provide margin of 100k, so I'll start expanding from the very month, by adding one more pond. Then, 5th month, another 100k cash in, and add another pond and so on.
So, by the 8th months, I'm having 8ponds, which is 2ponds per harvest, and will be adding 2ponds each harvest.
By 12th month, we are having 16ponds.
By 16th month, 32ponds.
By 20th month, suppose 64ponds, but I might stop at 48ponds (2acres)
By 24th month, 128ponds (5acres), or I might stop at 72ponds (3acres).
Estimate:
Lets just use 2acres and 3acres for estimation.
Make it easier, use 24months as completion.
2acres are believe to harvest 12ponds a month, resulting 1.2mil margin monthly.
while 3acres will harvest 18ponds a month, and resulting 1.8mil margin monthly.
Each year will be 14mil / 21mil.
If 24month completion, there will be another 4years to harvest, and generating 56mil / 84mil at the 6th year.
When we sell it, we expect the total return will be 80mil to 100mil.
Technology Transfer
Now, because I'll have to stop my operation on the 6th year. I've decided to sell my technology after my expansion completed. I might not asking for cash term, but requesting some percentage of ownership/profit. And planning to have the percentage as long as the cultivation last.
Thus, I'll act as consultant to any incoming partners, and by far, I have no decision on limit yet.
Therefore, my total return might not be restricted by 80 to 100mil. It will be more and lasting.
It is all now waiting for the confirmation.
Ambush
During the last update, I was saying that we will not do share operation with our neighbour. But, before we actually convey our message to him, he already made some moves. This cunning fox ordered 10,000 fries from breeder without informing us. So now we are forced to provide the capital to rear these fishes. This is a lesson for us, we have to be careful with this man. He is not a good partner, he is using us.
Fortunately, my dad made a smart move. He ask him to spare us 3,000pieces to test our tank. So, at least, we won't lose so much to him. So, we are now sharing 7,000fishes together. Expect 7months to harvest. Probably by Nov or Dec.
New Plan
Due to some incidents, we have decided to only operate this business for maximum 6years. So, we are having a very tight schedule to work things out, and get the best result out of it before we sell it. The reason is a little extraordinary and very personal which I will not disclose here. It has nothing to do with the nature of this industry, it was pure personal matter.
No matter, even if I can make a billionaire with this biz in the long-run, I have to let it go in just 6years. So, I've rearrange the entire plan to follow the pace.
We are now still waiting for the confirmation from the group, at the same time, we are building our testing phase. We've been clearing up the area to install tanks for the past two days. Although we haven't finish the clearing process, but we've done 2/3 of the area. Now we just have to finish it in this few days before the actual foundation getting install before tanks arrival.
If the group confirm with us, we will loan about 200k to 300k, plus some personal investment to start. The entire operation will be 2 to 5acres of land, although I wanted to have 10acres, but it seems quite unreachable due to the available of fingerlings stocks.
Because, if I operate 10acres of cultivation, I'll need 1.5mil fries each month, which I don't think I can get it easily. Therefore, I've downsize my cultivation to 2acres - 5acres. Even if 3acres is more than enough.
Structuring
Each acre will consist of 24ponds, size 20 x 80ft, 1600sqft, or fewer number of ponds but larger in size.
We will buy or prepare the 2months old fishes to put into these ponds. 24ponds will be divided into 4phases.
I'm expecting to my harvest cycle of each pond will be 4months. Dividing 24ponds into 4phases, will enable harvesting 6ponds per month. Resulting every month supplies.
Pond:
Generally, this size can accommodate 11,000 fishes (700gm).
But by using our new found technology, our pond will accommodate 22,000fishes.
2000 prepare for losses, and 20,000 expect to be harvest. Total of 14tons of production.
If each kg is given RM10, then we will have 140,000 sales per month.
Cost exclude building pond is expect to be 40,000. Margin available will be 100,000.
Resulting 600,000 each month per acre. If I can have 3acres will result a 2mil margin monthly.
Tactical Operation:
Due to limited capital, I've planned to have 4ponds at the begin. These 4ponds will act as the first batch of rotating supplies for each month. It can be tripling expand during each harvest, but I will take pre-caution of excess rapid growth. I'll only expand by doubling method (1 + 1).
For the first 4months, expecting each pond provide margin of 100k, so I'll start expanding from the very month, by adding one more pond. Then, 5th month, another 100k cash in, and add another pond and so on.
So, by the 8th months, I'm having 8ponds, which is 2ponds per harvest, and will be adding 2ponds each harvest.
By 12th month, we are having 16ponds.
By 16th month, 32ponds.
By 20th month, suppose 64ponds, but I might stop at 48ponds (2acres)
By 24th month, 128ponds (5acres), or I might stop at 72ponds (3acres).
Estimate:
Lets just use 2acres and 3acres for estimation.
Make it easier, use 24months as completion.
2acres are believe to harvest 12ponds a month, resulting 1.2mil margin monthly.
while 3acres will harvest 18ponds a month, and resulting 1.8mil margin monthly.
Each year will be 14mil / 21mil.
If 24month completion, there will be another 4years to harvest, and generating 56mil / 84mil at the 6th year.
When we sell it, we expect the total return will be 80mil to 100mil.
Technology Transfer
Now, because I'll have to stop my operation on the 6th year. I've decided to sell my technology after my expansion completed. I might not asking for cash term, but requesting some percentage of ownership/profit. And planning to have the percentage as long as the cultivation last.
Thus, I'll act as consultant to any incoming partners, and by far, I have no decision on limit yet.
Therefore, my total return might not be restricted by 80 to 100mil. It will be more and lasting.
It is all now waiting for the confirmation.
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